March 8 , 2013
TERROR, SECURITY, AND MONEY:
BALANCING THE RISKS, BENEFITS,
AND COSTS OF HOMELAND SECURITY
Published by
Publisher’s information html
Publisher's flyer and ordering
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Book cover jpg
THE AUTHORS
BOOK SUMMARY
TABLE OF CONTENTS
RELATED MATERIALS BY MUELLER
AND/OR STEWART
INTERVIEWS, REVIEWS, AND MEDIA COVERAGE
THE AUTHORS
John Mueller
Department of Political
Science and
614‑247‑6007
bbbb@osu.edu
polisci.osu.edu/faculty/jmueller
Mark G. Stewart
Centre for Infrastructure
Performance and Reliability
+61 2 49216027
mark.stewart@newcastle.edu.au
www.newcastle.edu.au/research-centre/cipar/staff/mark-stewart.html
John Mueller is Ralph D.
Mershon Senior Research Scientist at the
Mark G. Stewart is Professor of Civil Engineering and Director of the Centre
for Infrastructure Performance and Reliability at The University of Newcastle
in
In
seeking to evaluate the effectiveness of post-9/11 homeland security
expenses—which have risen by more than a trillion dollars not including war
costs—the common query has been “are we safer?” This, however, is the wrong
question. Of course we are “safer”—the posting of a single security guard at
one building’s entrance enhances safety, however microscopically. And for a
trillion dollars a very large number of security guards can be added to the
work force. The correct question is “are any gains in security worth the funds
expended?” Or in risk analyst Howard Kunreuther’s
rendering of the issue, “How much should we be willing to pay for a small
reduction in probabilities that are already extremely low?”
We seek in
this book to provide answers focusing on the cost-effectiveness of the enhanced
expenditures on homeland security measures that have taken place since 9/11 and
then more specifically on measures designed to protect. We also put forward
some comments about evaluating policing and intelligence matters, as well as
ones concerning mitigation, resilience, and overreaction. In doing so, we apply
standard risk and cost-benefit evaluation techniques that have been accepted
and used throughout the world for decades by regulators, academics, businesses,
and governments— but, as a recent National Academy of Science study suggests,
never capably applied by the people administering homeland security funds.
Given the
quite limited risk terrorism presents, enhanced expenditures designed to lower
it for the most part have simply not been worth it. For example, to be considered cost-effective, American
homeland security expenditures would have had each year to have saved nearly
11,500 lives or to have foiled, prevented, or protected against up to
1,667 attacks something like the one apparently intended on Times Square in
2010—or more than four per day. More specifically, analyses applying
assumptions substantially biased toward the opposite conclusion suggest that
the likelihood of a successful terrorist attack on a typical office-type
building would have to be a thousand times higher than it is at present
for protective security measures to be cost-effective.
We also suggest
that the existence of political and public
pressures does not relieve those in charge from being responsible in the way
they expend public funds, particularly expenditures concerning public safety.
Moreover, the fact that the United Kingdom spends proportionately less than
half as much on comparable expenditures suggests that the pressures do not
necessary require such high spending levels.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Introduction
Chapter 1: ASSESSING RISK
Chapter 2: TERRORISM AS A HAZARD TO
HUMAN LIFE
Chapter 3: THE FULL COSTS OF
TERRORISM
Chapter 4: EVALUATING HOMELAND
SECURITY SPENDING
Chapter 5: PROTECTING THE HOMELAND:
SOME PARAMETERS
Chapter 6: HOMELAND PROTECTION: INFRASTRUCTURE
Chapter 7: PROTECTING THE AIRLINES
Chapter 8: ASSESSING POLICING, MITIGATION, RESILIENCE
Chapter 9: CONCLUSIONS AND POLITICAL REALITIES
Appendix: THE RISK ASSESSMENT PROCESS
RELATED MATERIALS BY MUELLER AND/OR STEWART
Mark G. Stewart and John Mueller, “Terrorism Risks and Cost-Benefit Analysis of Aviation Security,” Risk Analysis, published online on October 4, 2012 before inclusion in an upcoming print issue of the journal
M. Grant and Mark G. Stewart, “A Systems Model for Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Improvised Explosive Device Attack,” International Journal of Intelligent Defence Support Systems“ (2013, in press).
John Mueller and Mark Stewart, “Serial Innumeracy on
Homeland Security,” The Skeptics blog, nationalinterest.org, July 24, 2012 html
Also posted at Cato@liberty blog html
John Mueller and
Mark G. Stewart, “The Terrorism Delusion:
Mark G. Stewart, Michael Netherton, Yufeng Shi, Matthew Grant, and John Mueller, “Probabilistic Terrorism Risk and Risk Acceptability for Infrastructure Protection,” 13 Australian Journal of Structural Engineering 1-15 (2012)
John Mueller, “Why al Qaeda May Never Die,” The Skeptics blog, nationalinterest.org, May 1, 2012 html
also at Cato@liberty html
Mark G. Stewart, Michael Netherton,
Yufeng Shi, Matthew Grant, and John Mueller, “Probabilistic
Terrorism Risk and Risk Acceptability for Infrastructure Protection,” 13 Australian Journal of Structural Engineering
1-15 (2012) pdf
John Mueller and Mark G. Stewart, “Civil Liberties, Fear, and Terrorism,” Notre Dame Journal of
International & Comparative Law, 2012 pdf
John Mueller and Mark G. Stewart, “Terrorism and
Counterterrorism Since 9/11,” Paper presented at the National Convention of the
International Studies Association,
John Mueller, “Terror Tipsters,” The Skeptics
blog, nationalinterest.org, January 24, 2012 html
Also posted as “A Scary Thought: Do We Really Need ‘If You See Something,
Say Something’?” Cato@liberty blog, January 24, 2012 html
John Mueller, “New Year Brings Good News on Terrorism: Experts
Wrong Again,” The Skeptics blog, nationalinterest.org, January 4, 2012 html
Mark G. Stewart and John Mueller, Cost-Benefit
Analysis of Aviation Security: Installed Physical Secondary Barriers (IPSB),
Federal Air Marshal Service (FAMS), and Federal Flight Deck Officer (FFDO)
Program. Research Report No. 281.12.2011, Centre for Infrastructure
Performance and Reliability, University of Newcastle, Newcastle, Australia,
December 2011 html
to pdf
John Mueller and Mark G. Stewart, “Dueling Delusions: Terrorism and
Counterterrorism in the United States Since 9/11,” paper delivered at the
Program on International Security Policy, University of
Mark G. Stewart and John
Mueller, “Assessing the Risks, Costs, and Benefits of Counter-Terrorism
Protective Measures for Infrastructure,” CIP Report, Vol. 10, No. 5,
November 2011, 3-5, 31 pdf
John Mueller and Mark G.
Stewart, “The Price is Not Right: The U.S. spends too much money to fight
terrorism,” Playboy, October 2011, 149-50 pdf
John Mueller and Mark G. Stewart, three essays in Slate: “Does the
United States Spend Too Much on Homeland Security? The government refuses to
subject homeland security to a cost-benefit analysis,” September 7, 2011 html, “Probability Neglect: Why the
government massively overestimates the risks of terrorism,” September 8, 2011 html, “1,667 Times Square-Style
Attacks Every Year: That's how many terrorism plots we would have to foil to
justify our current spending on homeland security,” September 9, 2011 html
John Mueller and Mark G.
Stewart, “Witches, Communists, and Terrorists: Evaluating the Risks and
Tallying the Costs,” ABA Human Rights Magazine, Vol. 38, No. 1, Winter
2011, 18-20 pdf
Mark
G. Stewart, Bruce R. Ellingwood, and John Mueller, “Homeland Security: A Case
Study in Risk Aversion for Public Decision-Making,” International Journal of
Risk Assessment and Management, Vol. 15, nos. 5/6, 2011 pdf
John Mueller and Mark G. Stewart, “At Issue: Does Al Qaeda still pose a serious
threat to the
Mark Stewart and John Mueller,
“Terrorism cash could save lives elsewhere,” Newcastle Herald, August 26, 2011 pdf
John Mueller and Mark G. Stewart, “Balancing the Risks, Costs, and Benefits of
Homeland Security,” Homeland Security Affairs, August 2011 html and pdf
John Mueller (ed.), Terrorism
Since 9/11: The American Cases.
Mark Stewart and John Mueller,
“Money Can't Buy Zero Risk,” Australian Financial Review, May 20, 2011,
p. 3 pdf
Also published in slightly revised form as “Ten years and $1 trillion later,
what has all our security spending achieved?” Nieman
Watchdog, Ask This, June 2, 2011 html
Mark G. Stewart and John
Mueller, “Cost-Benefit Analysis of Advanced Imaging Technology Full Body
Scanners for Airline Passenger Security Screening,” Journal of Homeland
Security and Emergency Management, 2011, 8(1): Article 30 pdf
Mark G. Stewart, “Life Safety Risks and Optimisation
of Protective Measures Against Terrorist Threats to Infrastructure,” Structure
and Infrastructure Engineering, 7(6), June 2011, 431-440 pdf
John Mueller and Mark G. Stewart, “Terror,
Security, and Money: Balancing the Risks, Costs, and Benefits of Homeland
Security,” paper presented at the Annual Convention of the Midwest
Political Science Association, Chicago, Illinois, April 1, 2011 pdf
Published in slightly revised form in August 2011 in Homeland
Security Affairs (see above)
John
Mueller, “Security at What Price?” (review of David K. Shipler,
The Rights of People), Wilson
Quarterly, Spring 2011, 97-98 pdf html
Mark G. Stewart and John Mueller, “Acceptability of Terrorism Risks and Prioritising Protective Measures for Key Infrastructure,”
paper presented at the First International Conference of Protective Structures,
John
Mueller and Mark G. Stewart, “Hardly Existential: Thinking Rationally About
Terrorism,” foreignaffairs.com, April 2, 2010 html
John
Mueller and Mark G. Stewart, “Hardly Existential: Terrorism as a Hazard to
Human Life,” paper presented at the National Convention of the
International Studies Association, New Orleans, Louisiana, February 18, 2010 pdf
John Mueller, “Assessing Measures Designed to Protect the Homeland,” Policy
Studies Journal, February 2010 (also in Benjamin Friedman et al., ed., Terrorizing
Ourselves: Why U.S. Counterterrorism Policy Is Failing and How To Fix It,
John Mueller, “Reply to Comments by Warren Eller and
Brian Gerber,” Policy Studies Journal, February 2010 pdf
Mark G. Stewart, “Acceptable Risk Criteria for Infrastructure
Protection, International Journal of
Protective Structures, 2010, 1(1):23-39
Mark G. Stewart, “Risk-Informed
Decision Support for Assessing the Costs and Benefits of Counter-Terrorism
Protective Measures for Infrastructure,” International Journal of Critical
Infrastructure Protection, 3, 2010, 29-40 pdf
Mark G. Stewart and John Mueller, Cost-Benefit
Assessment of
Mark G. Stewart, “Cost-Effectiveness of Risk
Mitigation Strategies For Protection of Buildings Against Terrorist Attack,” Journal
of Performance of Constructed Facilities, ASCE, 22(2), March/April 2008,
115-120 pdf
Mark G. Stewart and John Mueller, “A risk and
cost-benefit assessment of United States aviation security measures,” 1 Journal
of Transportation Security, 2008, 143-59 pdf
Mark G. Stewart and John Mueller, “A Risk and Cost-Benefit Assessment of
Australian Aviation Security Measures,” 4 Security Challenges 45-61,
Spring 2008 pdf
Mark G. Stewart, Michael D. Netherton, and David V. Rosowsky, “Terrorism Risks and Blast Damage to Built
Infrastructure,” Natural Hazards Review, 7(3) August 2006, 114-122 pdf
John Mueller, Overblown.
On nuclear terrorism:
John
Mueller, Atomic Obsession: Nuclear Alarmism from
John
Mueller, “Calming Our Nuclear Jitters: An exaggerated fear of nuclear weapons
has led to many wrongheaded policy decisions. A more sober assessment is
needed,” Issues in Science and Technology, Winter 2010, 58‑66 pdf
John
Mueller, “Nuclear Bunkum: Don't panic: bin Laden's WMD are mythical, too,” American
Conservative, January 2010, 20‑21 html
John
Mueller, “The Atomic Terrorist?” Research Paper for the International
Commission on Nuclear Non‑Proliferation and Disarmament, April 30, 2009 pdf
INTERVIEWS, REVIEWS, AND MEDIA COVERAGE
Charles
Kenny, “Airport Security Is Killing Us,” businessweek.com, November 19, 2012 html
Dan Froomkin, “Assault Weapons Immune From
Post-9/11 Security Crackdown,” huffingtonpost.com, July 24, 2012 html
Anna Mulrine, “Homeland Security: Are US
flight schools still training terrorists?” Christian
Science Monitor, July 24, 2012 html
John Mueller, appearance at Cato Capitol Hill Briefing, “Airport Body
Scanning: Will TSA Follow the Law?” July 19, 2012
Susan Stellin, “Bomb Plot Raises Questions
About Airport Security,” New York Times,
May 14, 2012 html
Bernard Keane, “The $28m pantomime of airport body
scanners,” crikey.com.au, February 7, 2012 html
Lisa Riordan
Seville, “How Much Is Security Worth?” The Crime Report, January 23, 2010 html
Rob Margetta, “Homeland Security Spending ‘Irresponsible’
Without Analysis, Author Says,” CQ
Homeland Security, January 9, 2012 pdf
“Why We Should Fear Bathtubs More Than Terrorists,” John Mueller and
Mark Stewark interviewed by Nick Gillespie,
Reason.TV, November 21, 2011 (7 minutes) html
Aaron Lake Smith, “What Constitutes Terrorism?” indyweek.com (
Rob Margetta, “Report: US Needs to Re-Evaluate, Homeland, Counterterroism Spending,” CQ Homeland Security,
May 23, 2011 pdf
Kevin
Rafferty, “Bin Laden bled
Tobias Kaiser, “Anti-Terror-Kampf kostet
Peter Grier, “The bin Laden effect: How the Al Qaeda leader changed
“The Reckoning: Assessing the economic toll of Osama bin Laden,” Need to Know,
PBS, May 6, 2011 html
Stephen Gandel, “How Much
has Osama bin Laden Cost the
Fast Forward with Lisa Murphy, Bloomberg News, May 3, 2011 html
“Deterring
terrorism: Is American spending too much on homeland security?” The
Economist, Gulliver blog, April 30, 2011 html
Barrie McKenna, “Canada-US security talks open window to some rational
thinking,” Globe and Mail (
Related articles
Mark Skousen, “TSA wastes
$1.2 billion a year and causes 1,200 unnecessary deaths annually,”
humanevents.com, January 24, 2012 html
Spencer
Ackerman, “How to Beat Terrorism: Refuse to Be Terrorized,” Wired,
September 11, 2011 html
Anthony Gregory, “The Priceless Price of the Post-9/11 Decade,”
huffingtonpost.com, September 9, 2011 html
Doyle
McManus, “The high cost of protecting
Editorial: “Pricey homeland security,” Los
Angeles Times, September 1, 2011 html
Dan Froomkin, “Reassessing the Cost of the Post-9/11 era: Post
Bin Laden,” huffingtonpost.com, May 11, 2011 html
Tim Fernholz and Jim Tankersley, “The
Cost of bin Laden: $3 Trillion Over 15 Years,” National Journal, May 5,
2011 html
Gideon
Rachman, “Declare victory and end the ‘global war on
terror,’” Financial Times, May 3, 2011 pdf
