February 8, 2015
TERROR, SECURITY, AND MONEY:
BALANCING THE RISKS, BENEFITS,
AND COSTS OF HOMELAND SECURITY
Published by Oxford University
Press in 2011
Publisher’s information html
Publisher's flyer and ordering
information pdf
Book cover jpg
THE AUTHORS
BOOK SUMMARY
TABLE OF CONTENTS
RELATED MATERIALS BY MUELLER
AND/OR STEWART
INTERVIEWS, REVIEWS, AND MEDIA
COVERAGE
THE AUTHORS
John Mueller
Department of Political
Science and Mershon Center
Ohio State University
1501 Neil Avenue
Columbus, Ohio 43201‑2602
USA
614‑247‑6007
bbbb@osu.edu
polisci.osu.edu/faculty/jmueller
Mark G. Stewart
School of Engineering and
Centre for Infrastructure
Performance and Reliability
University of Newcastle
New South Wales, 2308,
Australia
+61 2 49216027
mark.stewart@newcastle.edu.au
www.newcastle.edu.au/research-centre/cipar/staff/mark-stewart.html
John Mueller is Woody Hayes Senior Research Scientist
at the Mershon Center for International Security Studies and Adjunct Professor
of Political Science at Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, and Senior
Fellow, Cato Institute, Washington, DC. He is the author of over a dozen books,
several of which have won prizes. Among the most recent of these: The
Remnants of War (2004), Overblown (2006), Atomic Obsession:
Nuclear Alarmism from Hiroshima to Al-Qaeda (2010), and War and Ideas (2011). He has also
published numerous articles in scholarly journals and general magazines and
newspapers, is a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and has
been a John Simon Guggenheim Fellow.
Mark G. Stewart is Professor of Civil Engineering and Director of the Centre
for Infrastructure Performance and Reliability at The University of Newcastle
in Australia. He is the author, with R.E. Melchers, of Probabilistic Risk
Assessment of Engineering Systems (Chapman & Hall, 1997), as well as
more than 300 technical papers and reports. He has more than 25 years of
experience in probabilistic risk assessment of infrastructure systems that are
subject to man-made and natural hazards. Since 2004, Stewart has received
extensive Australian Research Council support to develop probabilistic
terrorism risk-modeling techniques for buildings subject to explosive blasts
and cost-benefit assessments of counterterrorism protective measures for
critical infrastructure.
In
seeking to evaluate the effectiveness of post-9/11 homeland security
expenses—which have risen by more than a trillion dollars not including war
costs—the common query has been “are we safer?” This, however, is the wrong
question. Of course we are “safer”—the posting of a single security guard at
one building’s entrance enhances safety, however microscopically. And for a
trillion dollars a very large number of security guards can be added to the
work force. The correct question is “are any gains in security worth the funds
expended?” Or in risk analyst Howard Kunreuther’s
rendering of the issue, “How much should we be willing to pay for a small
reduction in probabilities that are already extremely low?”
We seek in
this book to provide answers focusing on the cost-effectiveness of the enhanced
expenditures on homeland security measures that have taken place since 9/11 and
then more specifically on measures designed to protect. We also put forward
some comments about evaluating policing and intelligence matters, as well as
ones concerning mitigation, resilience, and overreaction. In doing so, we apply
standard risk and cost-benefit evaluation techniques that have been accepted
and used throughout the world for decades by regulators, academics, businesses,
and governments— but, as a recent National Academy of Science study suggests,
never capably applied by the people administering homeland security funds.
Given the
quite limited risk terrorism presents, enhanced expenditures designed to lower
it for the most part have simply not been worth it. For example, to be considered cost-effective, American
homeland security expenditures would have had each year to have saved nearly
11,500 lives or to have foiled, prevented, or protected against up to
1,667 attacks something like the one apparently intended on Times Square in
2010—or more than four per day. More specifically, analyses applying
assumptions substantially biased toward the opposite conclusion suggest that
the likelihood of a successful terrorist attack on a typical office-type
building would have to be a thousand times higher than it is at present
for protective security measures to be cost-effective.
We also suggest
that the existence of political and public
pressures does not relieve those in charge from being responsible in the way
they expend public funds, particularly expenditures concerning public safety.
Moreover, the fact that the United Kingdom spends proportionately less than
half as much on comparable expenditures suggests that the pressures do not
necessary require such high spending levels.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Introduction
Chapter 1: ASSESSING RISK
Chapter 2: TERRORISM AS A HAZARD TO
HUMAN LIFE
Chapter 3: THE FULL COSTS OF
TERRORISM
Chapter 4: EVALUATING HOMELAND
SECURITY SPENDING
Chapter 5: PROTECTING THE HOMELAND:
SOME PARAMETERS
Chapter 6: HOMELAND PROTECTION: INFRASTRUCTURE
Chapter 7: PROTECTING THE AIRLINES
Chapter 8: ASSESSING POLICING, MITIGATION, RESILIENCE
Chapter 9: CONCLUSIONS AND POLITICAL REALITIES
Appendix: THE RISK ASSESSMENT PROCESS
RELATED MATERIALS BY MUELLER AND/OR STEWART
John Mueller and Mark G. Stewart, Chasing Ghosts: The Costly Quest to Counter
Terrorists in the United States. To be published late in 2015 by Oxford
University Press. An expansion of the approach in Terrorism, Security, and Money: Balancing the Risks, Benefits, and
Costs of Homeland Security to deal with risk aversion and with the
cost-effectiveness of policing and intelligence counterterrorism measures.
John Mueller and Mark G. Stewart) “The Curse of the
Black Swan,” Journal of Risk
Research, forthcoming
John Mueller and Mark G. Stewart, “Terrorism, Personal
Security, and Responsible Policy Making,” in Patrick J. Carroll, Robert M.
Arkin, and Aaron Wichman (eds.), The Handbook of Personal Security, Taylor and Francis, forthcoming
Mark G. Stewart and John Mueller, “Responsible Policy
Analysis in Aviation Security With an Evaluation of PreCheck,”
Special Issue: International Symposium
on Aviation Security, Journal of Air Transport Management,
forthcoming
John Mueller and Mark G. Stewart, “Terrorism,
Counterterrorism, and the Internet: The American Cases,” to be published in John Horgan,
Marc Sageman, and Max Taylor, editors, Computer
Aided Terrorism, Taylor and Francis, forthcoming
John Mueller, “America’s Fear Factory Rolls On,”
nationalinterest.org, January 17, 2015 html
html2
John Mueller and Mark Stewart, “How French Intelligence
Missed the Charlie Hebdo Terrorists,”
time.com, January 14, 2015 html pdf
Christopher A. Preble and
John Mueller (eds.), A Dangerous World?
Threat Perception and U.S. National Security. Washington, DC: Cato
Institute, 2014. Chapters include John Mueller, “Nuclear Alarmism:
Proliferation and Terrorism,” and Mark G. Stewart, “Climate Change and National
Security: Balancing the Costs and Benefits,” information
Mark G. Stewart and John Mueller, “Risk Assessment of
the FBI’s Counterterrorism Efforts,” The
CIP Report, Center For Infrastructure Protection
and Homeland Security, School of Law, George Mason University, Vol. 13, No. 2,
September 2014, 16-19 pdf
Mark G. Stewart and John Mueller, “Terrorism Risks for
Bridges in a Multi-Hazard Environment,” International
Journal of Protective Structures, Vol. 5, No. 3 (September 2014) pdf
John Mueller and Mark G. Stewart, Responsible Counterterrorism Policy,
Cato Policy Analysis No. 755, September 10, 2014 pdf
John Mueller and Mark G.
Stewart, “Secret without Reason and Costly without Accomplishment: Questioning
the National Security Agency’s Metadata Program,” I/S: A Journal of Law and
Policy for the Information Society, Vol. 10, No. 2, Summer 2014: 407-432
pdf
pdf2
John Mueller and Mark G.
Stewart, “Evaluating Counterterrorism Spending,” Journal of Economic
Perspectives, 28(3), Summer 2014: 237-48 posted pdf
Mark G. Stewart and John Mueller, “A risk and cost–benefit
analysis of police counter-terrorism operations at Australian airports,” Journal
of Policing, Intelligence and Counter Terrorism, Vol. 9, No. 2, 2014: 98–116 html pdf
Mark G. Stewart and John Mueller, “Cost-benefit
analysis of airport security: Are airports too safe?” 35 Journal of Air Transport Management, Vol. 35, 2014, 19-28 pdf
John Mueller and Mark G. Stewart, “Terrorism and
Counterterrorism in the US: The Question of Responsible Policy-Making,” in
“Legal Perspectives on Contingencies and Resilience in an Environment of
Constitutionalism,” a special edition of The
International Journal of Human Rights, Clive Walker, guest editor, Vol. 18,
No. 2, 2014, 228–240 pdf
John Mueller, “Has the threat from terrorism been
exaggerated?” The Commentator,
January 8, 2014 html pdf
John Mueller, “Targeting needles, or adding more hay?
The NSA has institutionalized alarmist thinking and is remarkably resistant to
counter-information,” Indian Express,
November 13, 2013 pdf
Mark Stewart and John Mueller, Cost-Benefit Analysis of Australian Federal Police Counter-Terrorism
Operations at Australian Airports, Working Paper, Centre of Excellence in
Policing and Security, Australian Research Council, October 2013
John Mueller, “Are Terror Warnings Pointless? How overreacting to al-Qaida ‘chatter’ harms
America,” slate.com, August 7, 2013 html
Jim Harper, John Mueller, and Mark Stewart, Comments
on Notice of Proposed Rulemaking: Passenger Screening Using Advanced Imaging
Technology, TSA-2013-0004 (RIN 1652-AA67), June 21, 2013 pdf
John Mueller and Mark G. Stewart, “3 Questions about
NSA Surveillance,” Chronicle of Higher
Education, chronicle.com/blogs/conversation, June 13, 2013 html pdf
Mark G. Stewart and John Mueller, “Aviation Security,
Risk Assessment, and Risk Aversion for Public Decisionmaking,”
32 Journal of Policy Analysis and
Management 615–633, 2013 pdf
John Mueller, Mark G. Stewart, and Benjamin H.
Friedman, “Finally Talking Terror Sensibly,” nationalinterest.org, May 24, 2013
html pdf
John Mueller and Mark G. Stewart, “Hapless,
Disorganized, and Irrational,” slate.com, April 22, 2013 html pdf
Mark G. Stewart and John Mueller, “Terrorism Risks and
Cost-Benefit Analysis of Aviation Security,” 33 Risk Analysis 893-908 (2013) pdf
Matthew Grant and Mark G. Stewart, “A Systems Model for Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Improvised Explosive Device Attack,” 5 International Journal of Intelligent Defence Support Systems“ 75-93 (2012).
John Mueller, “Confusion: What if we
can't catch terrorists in America because there aren't any?” foreignpolicy.com,
October 8, 2012 html
John Mueller, “Eleven Years After 9/11, Terror Effects
Persist,” cato-at-liberty.org, September 10, 2012 html
John Mueller and Mark Stewart, “Never have so few been able to frighten so many,” Philadelphia Inquirer, September
9, 2012 html
Mark Stewart and John
Mueller, “Is the
war on terror worth the huge cost?” Newcastle Herald, September 7, 2012 html
John Mueller and Mark G. Stewart, “Commentary: Putting Al Qaeda in Perspective: The US sheds blood and
treasure on a threat no more risky than taking a bath,” globalpost.com, August
4, 2012 html
John
Mueller, “Threats Everywhere,” review of Kip Hawley and Nathan Means, Permanent Emergency: Inside the TSA and the
Fight for the Future of American Security. Regulation, Winter 2012-2013, 48-49 html
John Mueller and Mark Stewart, “Serial Innumeracy on
Homeland Security,” nationalinterest.org, July 24, 2012 html Also posted at Cato@liberty blog html
John Mueller and Mark G. Stewart, “The Terrorism Delusion: America's Overwrought Response to September 11,” 37 International Security 81-110 (Summer 2012) pdf
Mark G. Stewart, Michael Netherton, Yufeng Shi, Matthew Grant, and John Mueller, “Probabilistic Terrorism Risk and Risk Acceptability for Infrastructure Protection,” 13 Australian Journal of Structural Engineering 1-15 (2012)
John Mueller, “Why al Qaeda May Never Die,” nationalinterest.org,
May 1, 2012 html
also at Cato@liberty html
Mark G. Stewart, Michael Netherton,
Yufeng Shi, Matthew Grant, and John Mueller, “Probabilistic
Terrorism Risk and Risk Acceptability for Infrastructure Protection,” 13 Australian Journal of Structural Engineering
1-15 (2012) pdf
John Mueller and Mark G. Stewart, “Civil Liberties, Fear, and Terrorism,” Notre Dame Journal of
International & Comparative Law, 2012 pdf
John Mueller and Mark G. Stewart, “Terrorism and
Counterterrorism Since 9/11,” Paper presented at the National Convention of the
International Studies Association, San Diego, CA, April 3, 2012 pdf
John Mueller, “Terror Tipsters,” nationalinterest.org,
January 24, 2012 html Also posted as “A Scary
Thought: Do We Really Need ‘If You See Something, Say Something’?” Cato@liberty blog, January 24, 2012 html
John Mueller, “New Year Brings Good News on Terrorism: Experts
Wrong Again,” nationalinterest.org, January 4, 2012 html
Mark G. Stewart and John Mueller, Cost-Benefit
Analysis of Aviation Security: Installed Physical Secondary Barriers (IPSB),
Federal Air Marshal Service (FAMS), and Federal Flight Deck Officer (FFDO)
Program. Research Report No. 281.12.2011, Centre for Infrastructure
Performance and Reliability, University of Newcastle, Newcastle, Australia,
December 2011 html to pdf
John Mueller and Mark G. Stewart, “Dueling Delusions: Terrorism and
Counterterrorism in the United States Since 9/11,” paper delivered at the
Program on International Security Policy, University of Chicago, November 15,
2011 pdf
Mark G. Stewart and John
Mueller, “Assessing the Risks, Costs, and Benefits of Counter-Terrorism
Protective Measures for Infrastructure,” CIP Report, Vol. 10, No. 5,
November 2011, 3-5, 31 pdf
John Mueller and Mark G.
Stewart, “The Price is Not Right: The U.S. spends too much money to fight
terrorism,” Playboy, October 2011, 149-50 pdf
John Mueller and Mark G. Stewart, three essays in Slate: “Does the
United States Spend Too Much on Homeland Security? The government refuses to
subject homeland security to a cost-benefit analysis,” September 7, 2011 html, “Probability Neglect: Why
the government massively overestimates the risks of terrorism,” September 8,
2011 html, “1,667 Times Square-Style Attacks Every Year: That's how many
terrorism plots we would have to foil to justify our current spending on
homeland security,” September 9, 2011 html
John Mueller and Mark G.
Stewart, “Witches, Communists, and Terrorists: Evaluating the Risks and
Tallying the Costs,” ABA Human Rights Magazine, Vol. 38, No. 1, Winter
2011, 18-20 pdf
Mark
G. Stewart, Bruce R. Ellingwood, and John Mueller, “Homeland
Security: A Case Study in Risk Aversion for Public Decision-Making,” International
Journal of Risk Assessment and Management, Vol. 15, nos. 5/6, 2011 pdf
John Mueller and Mark G. Stewart, “At Issue: Does Al Qaeda still pose a serious
threat to the U.S.? No,” CQ Researcher,
September 2, 2011, 723 pdf
Mark Stewart and John Mueller,
“Terrorism cash could save lives elsewhere,” Newcastle Herald, August 26, 2011 pdf
John Mueller and Mark G. Stewart, “Balancing the Risks, Costs, and Benefits of
Homeland Security,” Homeland Security Affairs, August 2011 html and pdf
John Mueller (ed.), Terrorism
Since 9/11: The American Cases. Columbus, Ohio: Mershon Center for
International Security Studies, Ohio State University, 2011 html to pdf
Mark Stewart and John Mueller,
“Money Can't Buy Zero Risk,” Australian Financial Review, May 20, 2011,
p. 3 pdf Also published in slightly revised form
as “Ten years and $1 trillion later, what has all our security spending
achieved?” Nieman Watchdog, Ask This, June 2, 2011 html
Mark G. Stewart and John
Mueller, “Cost-Benefit Analysis of Advanced Imaging Technology Full Body
Scanners for Airline Passenger Security Screening,” Journal of Homeland
Security and Emergency Management, 2011, 8(1): Article 30 pdf
Mark G. Stewart, “Life Safety Risks and Optimisation
of Protective Measures Against Terrorist Threats to Infrastructure,” Structure
and Infrastructure Engineering, 7(6), June 2011, 431-440 pdf
John
Mueller and Mark G. Stewart, “Terror, Security, and Money: Balancing the Risks,
Costs, and Benefits of Homeland Security,” paper presented at the Annual
Convention of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, Illinois,
April 1, 2011 pdf
Published in slightly revised form in August 2011 in Homeland
Security Affairs (see above)
John
Mueller, “Security at What Price?” (review of David K. Shipler,
The Rights of People), Wilson
Quarterly, Spring 2011, 97-98 pdf html
Mark G. Stewart and John Mueller, “Acceptability of Terrorism Risks and Prioritising Protective Measures for Key Infrastructure,”
paper presented at the First International Conference of Protective Structures,
Manchester, UK, 2010 pdf
John
Mueller and Mark G. Stewart, “Hardly Existential: Thinking Rationally About
Terrorism,” foreignaffairs.com, April 2, 2010 html pdf
John
Mueller and Mark G. Stewart, “Hardly Existential: Terrorism as a Hazard to
Human Life,” paper presented at the National Convention of the
International Studies Association, New Orleans, Louisiana, February 18, 2010 pdf
John Mueller, “Assessing Measures Designed to Protect the Homeland,” Policy
Studies Journal, February 2010 (also in Benjamin Friedman et al., ed., Terrorizing
Ourselves: Why U.S. Counterterrorism Policy Is Failing and How To Fix It,
Washington, DC: Cato Institute, 2010, 99-119) pdf
John Mueller, “Reply to Comments by Warren Eller and
Brian Gerber,” Policy Studies Journal, February 2010 pdf
Mark G. Stewart, “Acceptable Risk Criteria for
Infrastructure Protection, International
Journal of Protective Structures, 2010, 1(1):23-39
Mark G. Stewart, “Risk-Informed
Decision Support for Assessing the Costs and Benefits of Counter-Terrorism
Protective Measures for Infrastructure,” International Journal of Critical
Infrastructure Protection, 3, 2010, 29-40 pdf
Mark G. Stewart and John Mueller, Cost-Benefit
Assessment of United States Homeland Security Spending. Research Report No.
273.01.2009, Centre for Infrastructure Performance and Reliability, University
of Newcastle, Newcastle, Australia, January 2009 html to pdf
Mark G. Stewart, “Cost-Effectiveness of Risk
Mitigation Strategies For Protection of Buildings Against Terrorist Attack,” Journal
of Performance of Constructed Facilities, ASCE, 22(2), March/April 2008,
115-120 pdf
Mark G. Stewart and John Mueller, “A risk and
cost-benefit assessment of United States aviation security measures,” 1 Journal
of Transportation Security, 2008, 143-59 pdf
Mark G. Stewart and John Mueller, “A Risk and Cost-Benefit Assessment of
Australian Aviation Security Measures,” 4 Security Challenges 45-61,
Spring 2008 pdf
Mark G. Stewart, Michael D. Netherton, and David V. Rosowsky, “Terrorism Risks and Blast Damage to Built Infrastructure,” Natural Hazards Review, 7(3)
August 2006, 114-122 pdf
John Mueller, Overblown. New York: Free Press,
2006. information and website about this
book
On nuclear terrorism:
John
Mueller, Atomic Obsession: Nuclear Alarmism from Hiroshima to Al-Qaeda.
New York: Oxford University Press, 2010, chs. 12-15. information and
website about this book
John
Mueller, “Calming Our Nuclear Jitters: An exaggerated fear of nuclear weapons
has led to many wrongheaded policy decisions. A more sober assessment is
needed,” Issues in Science and Technology, Winter 2010, 58‑66 pdf
John
Mueller, “Nuclear Bunkum: Don't panic: bin Laden's WMD are mythical, too,” American
Conservative, January 2010, 20‑21 html
John
Mueller, “The Atomic Terrorist?” Research Paper for the International
Commission on Nuclear Non‑Proliferation and Disarmament, April 30, 2009 pdf
INTERVIEWS, REVIEWS, AND MEDIA COVERAGE
Steve Chapman, “We worry too much about terrorism,” Chicago Tribune, January 15, 2015
Doyle McManus, “We’re safer than we think,” Los Angeles Times, April 16, 2013 html
Charles Kenny, “Airport Security Is Killing Us,”
businessweek.com, November 19, 2012 html
Dan Froomkin, “Assault Weapons Immune From
Post-9/11 Security Crackdown,” huffingtonpost.com, July 24, 2012 html
Anna Mulrine, “Homeland Security: Are US
flight schools still training terrorists?” Christian
Science Monitor, July 24, 2012 html
John Mueller, appearance at Cato Capitol Hill Briefing, “Airport Body
Scanning: Will TSA Follow the Law?” July 19, 2012
Susan Stellin, “Bomb Plot Raises Questions
About Airport Security,” New York Times,
May 14, 2012 html
Bernard Keane, “The $28m pantomime of airport body
scanners,” crikey.com.au, February 7, 2012 html
Lisa Riordan
Seville, “How Much Is Security Worth?” The Crime Report, January 23, 2010 html
Rob Margetta, “Homeland Security Spending ‘Irresponsible’
Without Analysis, Author Says,” CQ
Homeland Security, January 9, 2012 pdf
“Why We Should Fear Bathtubs More Than Terrorists,” John Mueller and
Mark Stewart interviewed by Nick Gillespie, Reason.TV, November 21, 2011 (7
minutes) html
Aaron Lake Smith, “What Constitutes Terrorism?” indyweek.com (North
Carolina), September 14, 2011 html
Rob Margetta, “Report: US Needs to Re-Evaluate, Homeland, Counterterroism Spending,” CQ Homeland Security,
May 23, 2011 pdf
Kevin
Rafferty, “Bin Laden bled U.S. of a cool trillion,” Japan Times online,
May 16, 2011 html
Tobias Kaiser, “Anti-Terror-Kampf kostet
USA eine Billion dollar,” Die Welt, May 14,
2011 html
Peter Grier, “The bin Laden effect: How the Al Qaeda leader changed
America,” Christian Science Monitor, May 7, 2011 html
“The Reckoning: Assessing the economic toll of Osama bin Laden,” Need to Know,
PBS, May 6, 2011 html
Stephen Gandel, “How Much
has Osama bin Laden Cost the US?” time.com, May 3, 2011 html
Fast Forward with Lisa Murphy, Bloomberg News, May 3, 2011 html
“Deterring
terrorism: Is American spending too much on homeland security?” The
Economist, Gulliver blog, April 30, 2011 html
Barrie McKenna, “Canada-US security talks open window to some rational
thinking,” Globe and Mail (Canada) html pdf
Related articles
Mark Skousen, “TSA wastes
$1.2 billion a year and causes 1,200 unnecessary deaths annually,”
humanevents.com, January 24, 2012 html
Spencer
Ackerman, “How to Beat Terrorism: Refuse to Be Terrorized,” Wired,
September 11, 2011 html
Anthony Gregory, “The Priceless Price of the Post-9/11 Decade,”
huffingtonpost.com, September 9, 2011 html
Doyle
McManus, “The high cost of protecting America,” Los Angles
Times, September 4, 2011 html
Editorial: “Pricey homeland security,” Los
Angeles Times, September 1, 2011 html
Dan Froomkin, “Reassessing the Cost of the Post-9/11 era: Post
Bin Laden,” huffingtonpost.com, May 11, 2011 html
Tim Fernholz and Jim Tankersley, “The
Cost of bin Laden: $3 Trillion Over 15 Years,” National Journal, May 5,
2011 html
Gideon
Rachman, “Declare victory and end the ‘global war on
terror,’” Financial Times, May 3, 2011 pdf
